Age is automatic. Maturity has to be earned.
Why it matters
The question separates demographic narrative from observable system quality.
The maturity tests
Measure spreads, settlement reliability, custody segregation, disclosure, governance, developer maintenance and recovery after stress. A rising market cap alone can coexist with fragile infrastructure.
Generational evidence
Federal Reserve household data offers a U.S.-specific snapshot of crypto use and age; it does not prove a global transfer of financial power. Cohorts change behavior as income, family and regulation change.
Why Nokia is an analogy, not evidence
Incumbents can lose when architecture changes, but banks are regulated networks of liabilities, credit and legal rights—not handset makers. Digital rails may replace layers, integrate with banks or create new intermediaries.
The blockers
Key safety, fragmented law, poor user experience, volatile fees, governance capture, speculative incentives and weak consumer recourse can all prevent durable adoption.