A forecast is a model with assumptions, not a future fact.
Why it matters
The work is most useful when inputs, time horizon and failure conditions remain attached to the headline number.
The stated view
ARK argues that institutional allocation, digital gold, remittance and emerging-market use could expand Bitcoin demand. Its research assigns different assumptions to scenarios rather than claiming certainty.
What is evidence
Observed holdings, transaction activity and product access are evidence. Future penetration rates, multiples and addressable markets are model inputs whose uncertainty compounds.
Right, disputed, evolving
The institutionalization of access supports part of the thesis. The magnitude and timing of price outcomes remain disputed and sensitive to regulation, competition, liquidity and macroeconomics.
Follow next
Compare each new forecast with prior assumptions, realized adoption and revised probabilities—not only its most optimistic endpoint.